> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.livain.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Salesforce isn't the system companies run on. That's the problem. - URL: https://www.livain.com/blog/salesforce-not-the-system-companies-run-on/ - Published: 2026-10-21T11:59:56.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-22T05:42:00.000Z - Description: SAP runs the back office. Salesforce runs the front of the funnel. In an AI-rebuilt company, that difference decides who gets replaced and who just gets slower. - Author: Remco Livain - Tags: IMHO, AI, Marketing Tech, Business Systems, Agentic AI I spent part of this week thinking about a company I don't work with and have no stake in: Salesforce. Not because of the stock, but because it's the cleanest test I know for one of my own convictions. If organisations really get rebuilt around AI, what happens to the software they were built around? My short answer: Salesforce will still be here in 2030\. It just won't be the company it is today. And the reason has less to do with AI than with where Salesforce sits inside a business. ### Front of the funnel, not the back office The comparison people reach for is SAP. Both are giant enterprise software vendors with huge consulting ecosystems around them. Both get called expensive, slow and hard to leave. But they are not in the same position. SAP runs finance, payroll, supply chain and production. Those are the processes a company literally cannot operate without. Ripping SAP out is a multi-year, board-level risk, which is why it survives even while its own customers complain about it. Salesforce sits at the front of the funnel: leads, pipeline, service tickets. Important, yes. But it is not the operating system the company runs on. It's a database people log into when they have to. Where each system sits in a companyBACK OFFICE: the operating systemFinancePayrollSupply chainProductionSAP lives here. Pull the plug: the company stops.FRONT OF FUNNELLeadsPipelineService ticketsSalesforce lives here.Migration problem: painful, but you stay.Substitution problem: optional.Where each system sitsBACK OFFICEFinancePayrollSupply chainProductionSAP lives here.Pull the plug: the company stops.FRONT OF FUNNELLeadsPipelineService ticketsSalesforce lives here.Migration problem: painful, you stay.Substitution problem: optional. SAP runs the processes a company can't operate without. Salesforce runs the ones it would rather not lose. > SAP has a migration problem. Salesforce has a substitution problem. ### What AI actually threatens Salesforce has spent two decades selling seats. One user, one licence. That model works beautifully as long as humans do the work. It stops working when a sales team of forty becomes a team of ten with a layer of agents doing the rest. Today: 40 people, 40 licencesSoon: 10 people + an agent layerAI agents doing the restSeat pricing assumed one human per task.Who pays for the 30 empty chairs?Today: 40 people, 40 licencesSoon: 10 people + an agent layerAI agents doing the restWho pays for the 30 empty chairs? Illustrative. Per-seat SaaS pricing breaks when agents take over work that used to need a licence per person. Salesforce knows this. It has been [moving toward outcome-based pricing](https://www.cxtoday.com/ai-automation-in-cx/salesforces-outcome-based-pricing-strategic-masterstroke-or-defensive-scramble-against-ai-seat-compression/?ref=livain.com), and investors have been nervous enough that the stock was [down roughly a third this year by late May](https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/salesforce-q1-beat-soft-q2-guide-saas-ai-disruption/?ref=livain.com) on fears of seat compression. Meanwhile its agent business is growing fast but is still small next to the core: [about $800 million in Agentforce ARR against a $41.5 billion company](https://www.constellationr.com/insights/news/salesforce-q4-strong-agentforce-picks-momentum?ref=livain.com). Salesforce, fiscal 2026 (USD billions)Total revenue$41.5BAgentforce ARR$0.8BThe agent business grows fast, but it's under 2% of the company. A hedge, not yet a pivot.Salesforce, fiscal 2026 (USD billions)Total revenue$41.5BAgentforce ARR$0.8BUnder 2% of the company.A hedge, not yet a pivot. Source: Salesforce Q4 FY26 results, via [Constellation Research](https://www.constellationr.com/insights/news/salesforce-q4-strong-agentforce-picks-momentum?ref=livain.com). The deeper problem is the surface. Agents start where employees already are: their email, their documents, their calendar, their chat. That's Microsoft and Google territory. And the intelligence layer on top, the part that reads the customer data and decides what to do next, is increasingly something OpenAI, Anthropic and Google can offer directly. I've written before about how [agents often don't need the interface we assume they need](https://www.livain.com/blog/openai-built-a-whole-browser-for-the-agent-the-agent-didnt-need-one/). A CRM screen is one of those interfaces. THE INTELLIGENCEDecides what to do next with your customer dataOpenAI · Anthropic · GoogleTHE DAILY SURFACEWhere people (and agents) actually work: email, docs, calendar, chatMicrosoft · GoogleTHE SYSTEM OF RECORDStores leads, pipeline and ticketsSalesforce and other CRMsvalue flows upTHE INTELLIGENCEDecides what to do nextwith your customer dataOpenAI · Anthropic · GoogleTHE DAILY SURFACEWhere people and agents work:email, docs, calendar, chatMicrosoft · GoogleTHE SYSTEM OF RECORDStores leads, pipelineand ticketsSalesforce and other CRMsvalue flows up The squeeze: agents start on the surface people already use, and the intelligence on top can be bought directly. The CRM screen sits at the bottom. ### The ecosystem is there, but its work is exposed Salesforce does have what SAP has: thousands of partners, certified admins and developers. The difference is what that network does all day. SAP's experts customise core processes that AI won't replace any time soon. They'll simply do it faster with AI, and keep building for customers in a fairly traditional way. Much of the Salesforce ecosystem configures workflows, dashboards and automations, which is exactly the kind of work agents and AI-native tools are getting good at. Same size of network, very different exposure. This is the same point I keep making about teams. [The leverage is the domain judgement, not the tool.](https://www.livain.com/blog/the-death-of-generic-ai-why-deep-domain-expertise-is-the-only-real-leverage-left/) Configuration without judgement is precisely what gets automated first. ### Why it won't happen overnight Here's where I disagree with the "SaaS is dead" crowd. Those of us working at the forefront of this shift consistently overestimate how fast the rest of the world moves. Multi-year contracts, compliance, procurement and plain inertia are real. They buy Salesforce time to reprice and repackage. So I don't expect a collapse. I expect a split. The large, regulated enterprise base holds through 2030\. The mid-market leaks, because that's where switching to something cheaper and AI-native is easiest. Growth slows, margins come under pressure, and more of the value flows to whoever owns the daily surface and whoever owns the intelligence. ENTERPRISE: HOLDSMulti-year contractsCompliance and procurementHigh switching costsInertia buys yearsMID-MARKET: LEAKSCheaper AI-native toolsShort decision pathsSwitching is easiest hereLicence bills get questionedResult by 2030: slower growth, lower margins, still standing.ENTERPRISE: HOLDSMulti-year contractsCompliance and procurementHigh switching costsInertia buys yearsMID-MARKET: LEAKSCheaper AI-native toolsShort decision pathsSwitching is easiest hereLicence bills get questionedBy 2030: slower growth, lowermargins, still standing. My expectation for 2030: not a collapse, but a split. The risk isn't dying; it's becoming the IBM of CRM. The real risk for Salesforce isn't dying. It's becoming the IBM of CRM: profitable, entrenched, and no longer where the action is. ### What this means if you're the customer If you run marketing or sales, the question isn't whether to leave Salesforce tomorrow. It's whether your next system design still assumes one licence per person doing a task a person no longer needs to do. The same goes for your storefront: [AI agents are already shopping on behalf of your customers](https://www.livain.com/blog/ai-shopping-agents-blocked-website-turning-customers-away/), and they don't care which CRM you bought. Design for the team you'll have in three years, not the org chart you have today. Being too big to fail isn't the same as being too important to replace. ### Sources & further reading **External** [Constellation Research — Salesforce Q4 FY26 results and fiscal 2030 outlook](https://www.constellationr.com/insights/news/salesforce-q4-strong-agentforce-picks-momentum?ref=livain.com) [CX Today — Salesforce's outcome-based pricing and AI seat compression](https://www.cxtoday.com/ai-automation-in-cx/salesforces-outcome-based-pricing-strategic-masterstroke-or-defensive-scramble-against-ai-seat-compression/?ref=livain.com) [Gotrade — Salesforce Q1 FY27 and the SaaS seat debate](https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/salesforce-q1-beat-soft-q2-guide-saas-ai-disruption/?ref=livain.com) **Related posts** [The Death of Generic AI](https://www.livain.com/blog/the-death-of-generic-ai-why-deep-domain-expertise-is-the-only-real-leverage-left/) [OpenAI built a whole browser for the agent. The agent didn't need one.](https://www.livain.com/blog/openai-built-a-whole-browser-for-the-agent-the-agent-didnt-need-one/) [AI shopping agents are getting blocked](https://www.livain.com/blog/ai-shopping-agents-blocked-website-turning-customers-away/)